In the Louisiana elections, mail-in ballots, which usually favor Democrats, show a narrower gap this year. The Second District, located in New Orleans, has historically been safe for Democrats. The uncertainty lies in how these early and late votes will affect Democrats in a state that is increasingly leaning towards Republicans.
The state has been predominantly Republican in presidential elections since 2000, with metropolitan areas like New Orleans and Baton Rouge being more favorable to Democrats. Regarding voter turnout, in the 2020 presidential elections, 69% of registered voters went to the polls. Nearly 46% of the total votes were cast before Election Day.
The Associated Press refrains from making predictions and only declares a winner when it is clear that there is no way for trailing candidates to catch up. In the Louisiana elections on November 5, the state's eight presidential electoral votes will be up for grabs. Four of the six U.S. House districts are considered safe for Republicans.
In the past elections, Trump received 58% of the votes in 2020, while Biden received 40%. This time, Democratic votes are expected to concentrate both at the beginning and at the end of Election Day. If no candidate reaches 50% of the votes on November 5, the two with the most support will advance to a runoff on December 7.
Two prominent Republican figures, Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise, are seeking re-election to the House of Representatives. The November 5 elections in Louisiana will be an open primary for non-presidential contests. The new variable is the Sixth District, a second majority-black district where a U.S. Supreme Court ruling will be applied in May.